by Joe Hearn | Oct 10, 2017 | Estate Planning, Retirement
Note: For help accomplishing the things discussed in this article, you might be interested in my book and organization kit If Something Happens to Me.
It’s been a rough couple of months in the U.S. Devastating hurricanes. Wildfires. Nuclear tensions with North Korea. Charlottesville. Las Vegas. It’s all a vivid reminder that life is uncertain. Have you ever wondered what you would do if you suddenly became the victim of a natural disaster, terrorist attack or other unexpected event like a fire or earthquake? Would you know what to grab if you only had seconds to escape your house? Would your loved ones know what to do if they had to step in and manage your affairs? A little planning now can make a big difference later. Here are 5 key actions you can take to prepare for the unexpected.
Meet with Your Advisers: Having 6 feet of water in your living room is not the time to discover that you don’t have flood insurance. The emergency room is not the place to learn that you need a medical power of attorney. Your funeral is not the ideal time for your spouse to discover that you didn’t have adequate life insurance. Schedule meetings with each of your advisers and let them know that you are trying to disaster-proof your affairs. Ask them to help fill any gaps that exist in your current planning.
Prepare a Grab-and-Go Case: You should organize all your important legal, financial, and insurance paperwork into a file that you can grab quickly if you need to flee your house or your city. Consider including birth certificates, estate planning documents, financial statements, insurance policies (homeowner’s, auto, life, health), Social Security cards, contact information for all of your advisers (program it into your cell phone as well), a list of prescriptions you take, a copy of your driver’s license and some emergency cash. I’ll include a more comprehensive list at the end of this article.
Keep in mind that you may not be able to escape with your important paperwork. Many fires, for example, happen while the homeowners are away. To protect yourself, store backup copies of important documents in a safe-deposit box or with a trusted friend, relative, or adviser. As a general rule, don’t keep anything in your safe deposit box that you may need in an emergency, such as a power of attorney, because boxes are not usually accessible 24-7 and may be sealed temporarily after the box owner dies. It’s a good idea to keep copies in the box, but have readily accessible copies as well.
Prepare a Household Inventory: Recent hurricanes destroyed thousands of homes. Most homeowners will not be able to remember everything that was in their home when filing insurance claims. A simple household inventory listing your home’s contents, or a video walk through of your home, will help avoid this problem. Just remember to store the inventory somewhere other than your home.
Write a letter of instruction: Your will and powers of attorney are formal legal documents designed to put certain people in charge and give them instructions for handling your affairs. There are plenty of things those documents don’t cover, however. For those things, you should write an informal letter of instruction to your spouse or other heirs. The letter can contain things like your funeral preferences, passwords, a “To-do” list, recommendations on how to invest life insurance proceeds, how to disperse certain personal property or heirlooms not accounted for in the will, what to do with pets, or any other explanations or instructions that would help ease the transition through an obviously difficult time. It’s an informal document, so add anything you think might be helpful and periodically update it so it stays current.
Update Your Plan Annually: Change is the one constant in life. Make sure to review your affairs at least annually in order to make necessary updates. Some questions to ask include: 1) Has your marital status changed? 2) Has the value of your assets changed significantly? 3) Have you made any changes to your insurance policies? 4) Have you changed jobs? If you answer “yes” to any of those questions, you should meet with your advisors to update your planning.
Life can change suddenly. By investing a small amount of time and energy into organizing your affairs, you can gain the peace of mind and protection that comes from being prepared.
Document Storage Checklist
Grab-and-Go Case
- Contact list
- List of checking/savings account numbers
- List of credit card numbers
- Recent statements for all investment accounts
- Insurance policies (life, homeowner’s, renter’s, auto, etc.)
- Will and/or trust documents
- Durable power of attorney for health care
- Durable power of attorney for finance
- Social Security cards
- Copies of birth and marriage certificates
- Passports and copies of driver’s license
- Computer and online user names and passwords
- Safe combination
- Safe deposit box keys
- List of prescriptions you take
- Emergency cash
Safe Deposit Box
- Copies of will or estate plan
- Copies of your powers of attorney
- A list of your insurance policies
- A list of your financial account numbers
- Originals of birth and marriage certificates
- Adoption papers
- Citizenship records
- Military service records
- Vehicle titles
- Real estate deeds
- Mortgage paperwork
- Loan agreements
- Stock and bond certificates
- Certificates of deposit
- Precious metals
- Valuable collectables
- Jewelry
- Photographs, video and/or a written inventor of your home’s contents
With a Friend, Relative or Trusted Adviser
- Paper or digital copies of the documents in your grab and go case
- Contact information for you (email, cell phone, etc.)
- Instructions on keeping the data secure
- Contact list for your advisers and heirs should something happen to you.
“Having a secure shelter doesn’t make storms any less dangerous, but it does make them less dangerous to you.”
~ John Mauldin
by Joe Hearn | Sep 14, 2017 | Distribution Planning, Income
A few weeks ago, I gave you six ways to make your nest egg last. It’s an important topic, so here’s a seventh: Dynamic Spending. There’s a growing body of research that shows it can significantly extend the life of your portfolio. What is it and how does it work?
In retirement, like in your working years, your budget will include both fixed and discretionary expenses. Fixed expenses are things like food and your mortgage. Discretionary expenses include things like travel. In retirement, many of your fixed expenses are gone. Your house and cars are likely paid off. The kids are out of college. You’re no longer saving. Fixed expenses make up a smaller portion of your budget than ever. Your discretionary expenses are another story. Most retirees have a long list of travel, hobbies and other things they want to do.
That type of budget—low fixed, high discretionary—is ideal for dynamic spending rules. As the name implies, dynamic spending is simply adjusting your spending each year based on how your portfolio is doing. You establish rules that give you a raise when times are good and cut back a little when times are tough. The adjustments don’t need to be large to be effective and, as we saw earlier, spending adjustments are easier in retirement because a larger portion of your budget is discretionary.
How it works.
Vanguard did some research in this area and found evidence that dynamic spending rules can greatly improve success. What they tested was a hybrid distribution strategy that was basically a percentage withdrawal of the previous year’s portfolio value with adjustments based on certain rules. They would allow the spending to adjust each year based on year-end value, but would limit it to a ceiling and a floor. This allows your spending to rise as high as the ceiling when times are good and adjust downward as far as the floor when times are bad.
Let’s look at a quick example. Assume a $1 million portfolio and a 4% withdrawal rate, so the first-year distribution is $40,000. Now for next year, they would calculate a ceiling and a floor 5% above and 2.5% below that $40,000. So the ceiling is $42,000 and the floor is $39,000. Now let’s assume we have a big up market and the portfolio value is $1.1 million. 4% of that would now be $44,000. That’s above the ceiling, so you limit your withdrawals to $42,000. What if instead the portfolio had a bad year and it dropped to $900,000. 4% of that is $36,000. That’s below the floor, so you take the floor amount of $39,000. Basically, you’re giving yourself a raise during good times or taking a pay cut during bad times, but you are limiting each by predetermined amounts. This strategy had a 92% success rate vs. the 78% success rate of just taking a dollar amount grown by inflation. That’s a huge jump, all because you set a few simple rules that help ensure you don’t overspend (and risk running out of money) or underspend (and risk not living to the full).
~ Joe
by Joe Hearn | Sep 1, 2017 | Lifestyle Design
“Life isn’t about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself.” – George Bernard Shaw.
When I was in college a friend of mine dropped out and said, “I’m going to move to Colorado for a year and try to find myself.” This totally made sense at the time. None of us had an overarching vision for our life or, for that matter, had the slightest idea what the future held beyond the current semester. If my friend could find the answer on a ski lift, more power to him.
The older I get however, the more I realize that George Bernard Shaw was right. You don’t find yourself. You create yourself. Nowhere is this more true than with retirement. Finding yourself implies a certain level of randomness and passivity. Be patient. Keep your eyes open. Wait for the puzzle pieces to fall into place. Maybe the life you want is just around the corner. Not only does that almost never work, but in retirement the clock is ticking. You don’t have the luxury of waiting to allow your dream life to gradually materialize.
If it’s up to you to create yourself, then you need to be proactive. As Teddy Roosevelt was fond of saying, you need to “get action.” You need to think like a designer or a builder. You need to test, experiment, iterate, be curious and try things. The goal is a well-designed life. A well-designed retirement. You take pieces like friends, activities, skills, wants, relationships and locations and you mold them into the life you want. Whatever you come up with won’t be perfect. There’s no “right” answer. But you’ll learn and grow from each iteration and gradually move closer to the life that feels like your true self. Not because you found it, but because you built it.
My U.S. readers have a chance to put this into practice right away. You have a long holiday weekend, starting today. How can you make the most of it?
“Get action. Do things; be sane; don’t fritter away your time; create, act, take a place wherever you are and be somebody; get action.” – Theodore Roosevelt
Have a great weekend!
~ Joe
by Joe Hearn | Aug 30, 2017 | Lifestyle Design, Pursuits
There are so many things that sound great in theory, but aren’t always great in practice. Take retirement for example. No work. Loads of free time. Travel. Those all sound great (and most of the time they are), but I’ve had retirees complain about every single one of them at one point or another over the years. That’s why it’s so important to think about your plans and ask yourself this question before you enter retirement:
Do I really want this or do I just think I want it?
Another way to ask that might be “Do I want this in theory or in practice?” Ask it of every major item on your retirement “To-do” list. The only real way to answer that question is to experiment with your plans. In other words, you actually start doing things. Shocking concept! You need to take all the things you have planned for “Someday” and start experimenting with them today.
This is not a trivial exercise. It turns out that we’re pretty bad at predicting the things that will make us happy. Scientists like Dan Gilbert at Harvard have done research that proves this. So experimenting and doing the things on your list is a critical step to determine whether you’re on point or you need to go back to the drawing board.
And don’t feel bad if you don’t have things totally figured out. None of us do. That’s what experiments are for. Ralph Waldo Emerson once said:
“Do not be too timid and squeamish about your actions. All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better. What if they are a little course, and you may get your coat soiled or torn? What if you do fail, and get fairly rolled in the dirt once or twice? Up again, you shall never be so afraid of a tumble.”
Take those words to heart. Don’t wait. Get out of the lecture and into the lab. Experiment. Test. Refine. Who cares if it’s not perfect. Who cares if you get dusty or bloodied. You’ll learn from it and get better. Just start trying things. As you do, your brain will make certain connections, you’ll meet people that will be integral to your plans, you’ll develop skills you need, you’ll build confidence, you’ll sharpen your focus. None of that stuff happens overnight. You can’t flip a switch and have total clarity regarding your purpose, plans and priorities. It takes time. The sooner you start, the better prepared you’ll be to make the most out of your retirement years.
~ Joe
by Joe Hearn | Aug 24, 2017 | Asset Allocation, Distribution Planning, Income
“Will my money last?” That’s the biggest concern for most retirees. What can you do to stretch your retirement dollars for as long as possible? A recent article in the Journal of Financial Planning (JFP) analyzed six factors and the role each played in portfolio longevity. (Determinants of Retirement Portfolio Sustainability and Their Relative Impacts, by Jack C. DeJong Jr., Ph.D., CFA; and John H. Robinson). Let’s take a look at each:
Initial withdrawal rate
The less money you take from your portfolio each year, the longer it will last. No surprise there. What is somewhat unexpected, however, is that the withdrawal rate that is considered “safe” is shrinking. Thanks to lower assumed bond rates, the long held 4% rule should probably be renamed the 3% rule for those who need their portfolio to last 30 years. That’s one conclusion reached by the JFP article and it is backed up by other studies from respected researchers like Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau. So if you anticipate a long retirement, and you think bond rates will stay near their historic lows, it’s probably a good idea to dial back your initial withdrawal rate. If, however, you saved more than needed, retire later or have health issues that shorten your retirement (e.g. 20 years instead of 30) the 4% rule will likely hold.
Interest rates
The Fed’s decade long experiment with low interest rates has been great for borrowers, but terrible for retirees. Generating income is harder than ever. When the initial research was done for the 4% rule, mean bond rates were around 5-6%. Now they are much lower. Lower returns mean your portfolio won’t last as long. It looks like rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. Plan accordingly.
Asset Allocation
Retirees typically invest in both stocks and bonds so they can balance out the need for growth with the need for stability. What’s the right mix? Several recent studies seem to suggest that dialing up stock exposure a bit (say from 60/40 to 70/30) might help improve portfolio longevity. Before taking that advice, however, I think there are three important considerations. First, what is the likely future return of stocks? The studies assume a lower return for bonds, but assume future stock returns will be similar to past stock returns. When stocks are as richly valued as they are now, however, future returns are generally lackluster. Second, how will you respond in the face of increased volatility? The studies assume that retirees will calmly ride out any increased volatility from the higher stock allocation. That flies in the face of what we know from both behavioral finance studies as well as the long running Dalbar study on investor behavior. Volatility often causes people to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Third, how much return do you need? If you haven’t saved enough, it can be tempting to swing for the fences and heavily overweight stocks. If you nest egg is adequate, however, it might make more sense to swing for singles and doubles rather than risk striking out. The takeaway from all this? Don’t take the added risk unless necessary. And if you decide to increase your stock allocation, wait for a good opportunity, such as after a market correction. Stocks will be cheaper and bonds will likely have rallied.
Inflation
Inflation mutes your investment returns and diminishes your purchasing power. For retirees, low inflation is better and will help portfolios last longer. You can’t control the inflation rate, but it’s helpful to know what it is. We’re currently in a prolonged period of low inflation around 1-2%. That can help improve portfolio longevity and offset the lower expected returns discussed earlier.
Investment Expenses
Investment expenses act as a headwind against returns, so it’s important to a) keep them as low as possible and b) make sure the people you hire are adding value. In a large study on the value of advisors, Vanguard concluded: “Left alone, investors often make choices that impair their returns and jeopardize their ability to fund their long-term objectives.” This type of behavior often leads to “wealth destruction rather than creation.” Vanguard suggests that advisors can help add value if they “act as wealth managers and behavioral coaches, providing discipline and experience to investors who need it.” Specifically, they say to look for an advisor who can help with things like asset allocation, security selection, behavioral coaching and distribution strategies. According to Vanguard, those things are worth about 3% per year in net returns. In other words, a good adviser creates value, but has reasonable fees. The JFP article found that portfolio longevity is greatly improved when expenses are limited to around 1%, but diminish significantly when expenses rise beyond 2 or 3%.
Withdrawal Strategy
Distribution strategies come in lots of different flavors, but the goal is usually the same: turn your assets into an income. The JFP article tested 4 different withdrawal strategies: a) spend stocks first, b) constant allocation, c) simple guardrail and d) spend bonds first. Most of those are self-explanatory except the guardrail strategy. With that strategy, withdrawals are taken proportionally from stocks and bonds with one exception. No withdrawals are made from stocks following a down year. Most retirees use the constant allocation strategy (draw from asset classes proportionally and rebalance each year), but the study found that the two strategies with the highest success rate were spend bonds first and the guardrail. Both strategies reduce the likelihood that you’ll have to sell assets for a loss during the early years of retirement which, not surprisingly, will help your money last longer.
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